By President Donald Trump is casting the 2026 midterm elections as a high-stakes test of both his agenda and his presidency, warning that a Republican loss could reopen the door to impeachment.
With nine months until voters decide control of all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 39 governorships, Trump has urged supporters to treat the election as decisive for the final two years of his second term.
“If we lose the midterms, you’ll lose so many of the things that we’re talking about, so many of the assets that we’re talking about, so many of the tax cuts that we’re talking about, and it would lead to very bad things,” Trump told a rally crowd in Iowa. “We have got to win the midterms.”
At a House Republican retreat, he made the stakes more personal. “You got to win the midterms because if we don’t win the midterms, it’s just going to be − I mean, they’ll find a reason to impeach me. I’ll get impeached,” he said.
Trump’s warning draws on history. After Democrats captured the House in 2018, they impeached him twice during his first term. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries signaled confidence his party can repeat that success. “We only need to net three” seats, he told reporters. “It’s happening. Democrats are going to take back control of the House, and the only question is, what’s the margin?”
Polling suggests a challenging environment for Republicans. Trump’s approval stands at 36% in a Feb. 5–8 Associated Press/NORC survey, consistent with recent Quinnipiac and Gallup readings. Historically, the president’s party loses an average of 25 House seats in midterms; gains have occurred only when approval topped 60%. In 2018, with Trump at 41%, Republicans lost 40 seats.
Economic sentiment remains a drag, as well. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for February came in at 57.3, roughly 20% below where it stood a year ago. Nearly three-quarters of Americans rate economic conditions as fair or poor, and a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found 59% disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Trump has disputed that assessment. “I think we have the greatest economy actually ever in history,” he told Fox Business host Larry Kudlow, adding, “I guess we have to sell that because we should win in a landslide, and we’ll do everything we can to do it.” He has dismissed affordability concerns as a “Democratic hoax” or “con job.”
Republicans point to a financial edge. The Republican National Committee began the year with $95 million cash on hand, while the Democratic National Committee carried debt. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund reported $100 million compared with $36 million for the Senate Majority PAC, and pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. holds $304 million. Trump highlighted the broader haul in an August Truth Social post: “I am pleased to report that I have raised, since the Great Presidential Election of 2024, in various forms and political entities, in excess of 1.5 Billion Dollars.”
Whether that advantage can overcome low approval ratings and historical midterm headwinds remains uncertain. With only a small number of competitive House districts, the 2026 elections will test whether Republican resources and messaging can defy political gravity — or whether history repeats itself.
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