By Canada’s governing class appears to be suffering a collective psychological break over President Donald Trump, and the evidence is no longer subtle. This week’s revelation that the Canadian Armed Forces have quietly resurrected century-old contingency plans to model a hypothetical American invasion marks a descent from strategic prudence into something closer to political delirium.
According to details leaked to the press, the scenario envisions U.S. forces pouring north across the border, overwhelming Canadian defenses in days—perhaps as few as two—by virtue of sheer superiority in manpower, logistics, airpower, and technology. The imagined response is less North American than Third World: guerrilla warfare. Planners reportedly gamed out insurgent cells, armed civilians, drone strikes, sabotage, ambushes, and hit-and-run attacks modeled on conflicts in Afghanistan—against the Soviets in the 1980s and later against U.S.-led coalitions that included Canadian troops themselves, according to reports.
Retired generals have added their own somber commentary, conceding that conventional defeat would be rapid but insisting that occupying Canada would be a nightmare. Some floated the idea that allies—Britain, France with its nuclear deterrent, perhaps even Germany or Japan—might intervene if NORAD collapsed. Others pointed to Ukraine’s battlefield innovations, particularly drones and portable anti-tank weapons, as proof that a weaker nation can blunt a stronger one. Prime Minister Mark Carney has echoed concerns about escalating U.S. rhetoric, while defense officials push to expand reserve forces and reinforce Canada’s northern presence.
All of this, we are told, flows from Trump’s behavior: jokes about Canada becoming the 51st state, warnings about Arctic vulnerabilities, tariff threats, and his campaign to acquire Greenland from Denmark, backed by economic pressure on European governments. The recent seizure of Venezuela’s former leader Nicolás Maduro only intensified elite anxieties that American power might again be exercised unilaterally, as if the prime minister of Canada is a dictator that Trump would remove.
Yet the premise itself is unserious and the response is even crazier: Prime Minister Mark Carney spent last week kissing up to China rather than siding with the United States over its demands for a stronger NATO and a more secure Greenland.
Mark Carney talking in China
“I believe the progress we have made and the partnership sets us up well for the new world order”
What a disaster. pic.twitter.com/qiiLQN1G5Z
— Ryan Gerritsen🇨🇦🇳🇱 (@ryangerritsen) January 15, 2026
The United States invading Canada is not merely unlikely; it is detached from geopolitical reality. The two countries share the longest undefended border on Earth, deeply integrated economies, intertwined families and cultures, and the closest military partnership in modern history through NORAD and NATO. An American invasion would trigger global condemnation, economic self-immolation, and an endless quagmire across thousands of miles of inhospitable terrain. No credible military or political analyst believes such a scenario is plausible. Even officials involved in the planning reportedly concede its improbability.
Which raises the obvious question: why plan it at all?
The answer is not strategy but psychology of the global left that seems to be losing its collective mind. War-gaming an American assault reveals not readiness, but panic. It reflects an elite class so unnerved by Trump’s unpredictability that it has begun mistaking rhetoric for intent. Worse, it diverts attention from real national priorities—securing Arctic sovereignty against genuine competitors like Russia and China, reducing economic over-dependence on the United States, and rebuilding credible conventional military capacity.
Trump’s bombast is sometimes crude and, yes, the tariffs are disruptive, especially to places like Canada. But translating political noise into invasion scenarios betrays a deeper failure of judgment. Canada’s political class is indulging in fantasy insurgencies while neglecting the sober work of statecraft.
The real invasion underway is not military. It is the invasion of common sense by fear of elites who are losing their grip.
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