Liberals are starting to fret. For over the past year, the common refrain from Democrats has been that polls showing Donald Trump crushing Joe Biden in the election right now don’t matter. The former president’s numbers, they have insisted, will plummet once Biden’s Department of Justice succeeds in convicting Trump on one of his over 90 charges lodged against him, ranging from how he handled classified documents to his role in the mobbing of the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Now, one of the most prominent liberal-leaning outlets in Washington is flashing a warning to Democrats: Not So Fast.
Yes, Biden’s historically unpopular. Yes, views of his job performance are growing increasingly negative. But if a jury of Trump’s peers in Manhattan, or South Florida, or Atlanta or Washington convicts him before Election Day, they say, it would have a dramatic impact on the race.
They’re probably wrong, laments Politico.
The evidence so far suggests the race might shift only slightly, by a few points. That could be important in another close election, but it’s not the kind of Trump collapse that Democrats may hope for — or Biden may need if his numbers don’t improve.
Trump’s legal peril is unprecedented, and the sentiment that a criminal conviction could be a mortal wound to his candidacy is mostly driven by political intuition right now. But we’re starting to get more data on how a conviction would affect Trump’s chances to defeat Biden, thanks to pollsters who’ve asked voters what they would do if a jury found Trump guilty.
The Hill recently noted that “polls show former President Trump leading President Biden in key swing states that will likely decide the 2024 election, indicating Trump is not just the overwhelming favorite to secure the GOP nomination but is in a strong position to recapture the White House less than a year before Election Day.
Trump leads Biden in hypothetical match-ups both with and without third-party options on the ballot in states including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to fresh polling. Biden carried each of those states in 2020, and Trump will need to flip at least a few of those states if he is to win in 2024.”
One reason that the race may not likely shift regarding Trump’s legal problems revolves around the growing sense that the Biden Family is corrupt, particularly as Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, faces over 40 years in prison from his alleged selling of influence abroad and tax schemes.
According to reports, the president is often “triggered” by aides expressing concern about their political future because of Biden’s son and the legal problems have begun wearing on the elderly president, Politico explained. “President Joe Biden reaches out to his son Hunter regularly to check on him. And increasingly, those messages have taken on a fresh sense of urgency.
The younger Biden is facing new criminal charges and could soon be held in contempt of Congress after refusing to testify in a Republican-led hearing meant to impugn the reputations of both him and his father. Those closest to the president have grown more worried about the personal toll it is taking on the older man.
‘I know when he hurts. He doesn’t talk about it much, most of us don’t,’ said former Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who has been friends with the elder Biden for more than four decades. ‘He has a real human decency, and a lot of it is created by scarring. And he’s worried.’
Joe Biden’s concern about his surviving son has only grown since he took office, according to aides and confidants — five in total — all of whom were granted anonymity to speak about private conversations.”
The sources did not say whether the aforementioned “concern” was because being president meant that his alleged criminal son would more likely be caught, charged, and face justice.
The Politico story also reveals Hunter Biden’s narcissism. “In recent conversations with family friends,” the story continued, “he has worried that he might have to flee the country if Trump were to be elected president again,” two people who spoke with Hunter told Politico’s Jonathan Lemire.
Whether or not Hunter’s growing problems make it more likely or less likely to stay in the race remains uncertain, but one thing is becoming more conceivable: Joe will be giving his son a pardon after the 2024 election, win or lose.
Earlier in the week, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre refused to deny that the president may pardon his son.