By Vice President JD Vance is no longer the undisputed heir apparent to the Republican Party’s post-Trump future. New polling suggests his formidable early advantage in the 2028 presidential sweepstakes has contracted dramatically, raising fresh questions about how closely his political fortunes are tethered to President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings.
A McLaughlin & Associates survey conducted November 17–24 among 439 Republican and GOP-leaning voters shows Vance’s lead over Donald Trump Jr. collapsing from 28 points in September to just 10 points this month. In August, Vance led Trump Jr. 36% to 16%, a 20-point cushion that widened to 28 points in September before narrowing to 18 points in October (38%–20%). The latest November numbers place Vance at 34% and Trump Jr. at 24%, according to Newsweek.
The downward trend comes as President Trump absorbs some of the weakest approval ratings of his second tenure. An Economist/YouGov poll last month recorded Trump at 39% approval and 58% disapproval—his lowest mark since returning to office in January. The slump, analysts say, is reverberating through the administration.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey, told Newsweek that the vice president is paying a price for proximity. “Polls are pretty meaningless this far out from the election, but the issue for Vance is that he’s so closely tied to this Administration,” Shanahan said. “For the moment, he has to be in lockstep with the president. If he’s not, he simply isn’t doing the job he has been elected to fulfill. So, while Trump’s polling is languishing, Vance suffers.”
President Trump, barred by the 22nd Amendment from seeking a third term, has fueled speculation by repeatedly praising Vance while declining to anoint a successor. In October, he offered a characteristically expansive list of favorites: “We have great people…We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think [Secretary of State] Marco’s [Rubio] great. I think, I’m not sure if anybody would run against those. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable. I really do. I believe that. I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever.”
Vance, for his part, has tried to douse the premature 2028 chatter. Speaking with Sean Hannity earlier this month, he said: “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it.”
JUST IN — VP Vance addresses potential 2028 presidential run in exclusive @seanhannity interview: "We're gonna win the midterms. We're gonna do everything that we can to win the midterms. And then after that, I'm gonna sit down with the president of the United States and talk to… pic.twitter.com/WNelaoph2D
— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 14, 2025
Trump Jr., however, offered a very different tone when asked in March about his own ambitions. “I accurately predicted that my buddy JD would be an instant power player in national GOP politics, so your theory is that I worked my [expletive] off to help get him the VP nomination because I want to run for president in 2028? Are you [expletive] retarded? I’m actually glad you’re printing this [expletive] though because at least now the rest of the press corps will see how [expletive] your ‘sources’ are and how easily you’re played by them. Congrats, moron.”
Other potential contenders are treading more cautiously. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, for example, is allegedly gearing up to run for president.
With serious contenders unlikely to declare before the 2026 midterms, the Republican landscape remains unsettled—and Vance’s standing, once assumed secure, is now very much a moving target.
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