By Donald Trump Jr. has long been discussed as a possible successor to his father and a future Republican presidential candidate.
But the staggering growth of his investment firm raises a different possibility: Don Jr. may simply be making too much money to run for president.
Trump Jr. is a partner at 1789 Capital, a conservative investment firm that has rapidly expanded into artificial intelligence, defense technology, space exploration and advanced manufacturing, according to The New York Times.
Reports say that the firm now manages approximately $3.5 billion, up from about $200 million just one year earlier, wrote The Financial Times. Its leaders hope to eventually increase that figure to $10 billion.
Its main fund has also reportedly produced returns approaching 200 percent.
That performance far exceeds the results typically delivered by new venture capital funds. Much of the gain remains on paper because it reflects rising valuations for privately held companies, but the potential profits still create a powerful incentive for Trump Jr. to remain in business.
A presidential campaign would require years of travel, fundraising and financial disclosure. It could also force Trump Jr. to distance himself from a firm enjoying extraordinary growth.
Staying at 1789 Capital allows him to remain influential in Republican politics without abandoning one of the most lucrative opportunities in the investment world.
Omeed Malik and Chris Buskirk launched 1789 Capital in 2022, with support from prominent conservative donor Rebekah Mercer. Trump Jr. joined as a partner in November 2024, shortly after his father won another term in the White House. At the time, the firm had approximately $150 million under management.
The firm’s name invokes 1789, the year the Constitution took effect and the First Congress proposed the Bill of Rights. The amendments themselves were ratified in 1791.
Since Trump Jr. joined, 1789 Capital has become one of the most closely watched investment firms in the country. Trump Jr. and Malik reject suggestions that the firm receives improper assistance from the administration.
Trump Jr. has said he speaks with his father only “every few weeks,” does not discuss business with him and holds “no policy position and no role within the administration whatsoever.”
Malik has likewise emphasized that he has never “set foot in the White House.”
Despite liberal complaints, there is no public evidence that 1789 Capital has violated the law. Executives at companies backed by the firm have also said they have not seen Trump Jr. or his partners request special favors.
But there is little doubt that the firm’s political connections provide visibility and access throughout the conservative business world.
1789 Capital openly describes its approach as “patriotic capitalism.” The firm invests in American companies positioned to benefit from rising demand for artificial intelligence, defense production, domestic manufacturing and alternatives to Chinese technology.
Its portfolio reportedly includes SpaceX, Anduril, Cerebras, Groq, xAI, Reflection AI, Databricks and Crusoe.
The firm’s artificial intelligence strategy is particularly broad. Rather than betting solely on one chatbot or consumer application, 1789 Capital has invested across much of the AI supply chain.
Cerebras and Groq develop specialized computing technology for training and operating artificial intelligence systems. xAI and Reflection AI build advanced AI models. Databricks provides data infrastructure, while Crusoe develops the massive computing and energy capacity required to run AI systems.
The strategy gives 1789 exposure to chips, data centers, software, models and the physical infrastructure behind the industry.
It also closely tracks the Trump administration’s focus on winning the artificial intelligence race against China, expanding domestic energy production and rebuilding American manufacturing.
During an investor presentation for Reflection AI, Trump Jr. described the company as “good for America.”
Reflection has been one of 1789 Capital’s most promising investments. The firm invested while the company’s valuation was still a fraction of the $25 billion figure it later sought during fundraising discussions.
Another major success came from Polymarket. 1789 Capital invested tens of millions of dollars in the prediction-market company, and Trump Jr. joined its advisory board.
The firm reportedly invested when Polymarket was valued at approximately $300 million. Its valuation later climbed into the billions as the platform expanded and returned to the American market.
Trump Jr. recalled meeting Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan at a rooftop gathering during the 2024 Republican National Convention.
“He just took sort of the approach that we did, which is like, ‘Fuck all you guys,’ ’’ Donald Trump Jr. said of Coplan and his own critics.
The comment captures the broader philosophy behind 1789 Capital.
The firm was created to back businesses its founders believed had been neglected or punished by traditional financial institutions because of their associations with conservative politics, gun ownership, defense manufacturing or the America First movement.
Democratic lawmakers, as always, demanded an investigation into whether Trump Jr.’s political connections played any role in the federal support. The firm has denied any involvement in the government’s decision.
“It’s not like it takes a genius to figure this out,” Trump Jr. said. “I don’t have inside information.”
His argument is straightforward.
The Trump administration has publicly emphasized artificial intelligence, rare-earth minerals, domestic manufacturing and defense technology. An investor would not need secret information to predict that companies operating in those industries could benefit from federal policy.
The controversy is unlikely to disappear as long as Trump Jr. remains both a leading figure in his father’s political movement and a partner in a firm investing in industries affected by administration policy.
But that tension may also explain why Trump Jr. would hesitate to seek the presidency himself.
Running for the White House would subject every investment, meeting and business relationship to far greater scrutiny. He could be forced to sell assets, step away from 1789 Capital or place his holdings into some form of trust.
Remaining outside government gives him considerably more freedom.
Trump Jr. can campaign for Republican candidates, influence the direction of the MAGA movement and maintain relationships with major donors and technology executives without accepting an official administration role.
And unlike a presidential candidate, he can continue profiting from his investments into some of the fastest-growing private companies in America.
Trump Jr. may eventually decide that becoming president is worth the sacrifice, but for now he may be making far too much money to apply for the job.
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