By Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District remained in Republican hands Tuesday night, but the closer-than-expected margin is prompting new warnings for the GOP from one of CNN’s top election analysts. Senior data reporter Harry Enten said Wednesday that the party’s 9-point win — in a district former President Donald Trump carried by double digits in three consecutive elections — signals rising Democratic strength ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic state lawmaker Aftyn Behn to fill the vacant seat. The outcome itself was not a surprise; the district has long been considered safely Republican. But Enten told CNN anchor John Berman that the real significance lies in the scale of the shift, noted Mediate.
“Republicans should be running for the hills this morning because the blue wave is building, my dear friend,” he said, noting that Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024, 15 points in 2020, and 17 points in 2016. A 9-point GOP victory, he added, amounts to roughly a 13-point swing toward Democrats.
The GOP should be running for the hills, as the blue wave is building.
Tuesday's result in TN-07 is part of a larger pattern of Dems outrunning Harris 2024 in 6 specials by 13+ pts.
5 of 5 times since 2005 the party that outperforms in specials ahead of midterms win the House. pic.twitter.com/ZLy8BKFNl9
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) December 3, 2025
Enten also rejected the argument that special elections are unreliable because of low turnout. He pointed out that participation in Tuesday’s contest was unusually robust for an off-cycle vote. “Excuse time for Republicans is over,” he said. “The turnout last night in Tennessee, 7th district was equal to the turnout in the 2022 midterm election. So the blue wave, it seems to be building right out of the center of Tennessee.”
Berman observed that the movement appeared not only consistent but pronounced. Enten agreed. “And it’s not just that it’s blue, it’s that it’s double digit blue,” he said. “It is double, exactly right. It’s double digit blue.”
Enten then broadened the analysis to the national map. “I will note I looked at the stats if in fact you had a 13-point shift like we saw in Tennessee, and you applied that to the 2024 presidential map,” he said. “We are talking about a gain for Democrats of north of 40 seats.”
The analyst said the result fits a pattern seen over the past two decades. Since 2005, the party that has overperformed in special elections has gone on to win the House majority in the following midterm — a trend that has held five times in a row.
“What happened last night in Tennessee ain’t just staying in Tennessee,” Enten warned. “What happened last night in Tennessee is a very, very bad omen for Republicans and a very, very good omen for Democrats.”
While Republicans maintained control of the district, Enten argued that the narrowing margin reflects a broader national environment shifting against the GOP — and doing so earlier in the cycle than many political strategists expected.
[Read More: Paul Finebaum Makes Announcement]
