By Democrats still hold an advantage in the race for Congress, but Republicans are closing the gap—and the party’s massive fundraising advantage could help make up for its weaker voter enthusiasm.
A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll finds Democrats leading Republicans 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. That three-point margin is down from the five-point Democratic advantage recorded in May.
Among voters who say they are absolutely certain to participate in November, Democrats lead 53 percent to 45 percent. That is still a substantial advantage, but Republicans have cut the gap from nine points two months ago.
The results suggest that Democrats remain better positioned to turn out their base, but the broader electorate is far more competitive than party leaders might have expected only a few months ago.
Washington Post reporters Scott Clement and Gregory S. Schneider explained the central problem facing the GOP:
“Republican supporters just aren’t as energized to turn up at the polls, the Post-Ipsos poll suggests. If Trump is able to mitigate some top concerns by Election Day — for example, by bringing down the price of gasoline or ending the war with Iran — then his push to draw new congressional districts in red states could be enough to retain the GOP majority in the House.”
They continued: “Democrats’ hopes of flipping the House hinge on a more enthusiastic base, which is evident in the poll and in the party’s strong turnout in recent primaries and special elections.”
But Democrats’ three-point lead is far smaller than the advantage they held before the 2018 midterms. During President Donald Trump’s first term, Democrats held a 10-point lead in Washington Post-ABC polling before gaining 40 House seats in a wave election.
New Conservative Post previously noted that Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot have repeatedly fallen below the historical margins normally enjoyed by the opposition party. Democrats may be ahead, but they are not dominating the political environment in the way they did eight years ago.
Their enthusiasm advantage is also colliding with a severe money problem.
The Democratic National Committee has nearly $15 million in cash but approximately $18 million in debt, according to the latest campaign finance filings available through the end of May. The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, has approximately $125 million in the bank and no debt.
The difference leaves the DNC effectively underwater while Republicans hold a cash advantage of roughly $110 million.
The situation has reportedly become so sensitive that DNC leaders were asked to sign nondisclosure agreements before a private meeting about the party’s finances. Axios described the request as a break from past practice for senior party officers and a sign of mounting concern over DNC Chairman Ken Martin’s leadership.
The disparity could prove especially important following the Supreme Court’s recent decision lifting limits on coordinated spending between political parties and their candidates. The ruling allows party committees to deploy their money more directly and purchase advertising at the lower rates available to individual campaigns.
That means the RNC’s enormous bank account is no longer merely an impressive fundraising statistic. It can now be converted more efficiently into advertisements and campaign assistance in competitive congressional districts.
Democrats have also burned through money in costly political fights that failed to deliver the intended results. Nearly $40 million from a group aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries went into an unsuccessful Virginia redistricting effort. One House Democrat openly questioned the decision.
“I feel like this is a colossal waste of resources that will further erode our politics,” the lawmaker said. “How many millions of dollars are we spending on this when the DNC is in debt and we have 40 frontline races to win?”
Democrats face ideological problems as well.
Recent victories by democratic socialist candidates in Democratic primaries have alarmed party moderates who fear that far-left nominees could squander favorable political conditions. Comedian Bill Maher warned that Democrats could lose the midterms by embracing “crazy” socialists, while veteran strategist James Carville has urged Democratic lawmakers to distance themselves from the party’s socialist wing.
The Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that the economy remains the dominant issue, cited by 54 percent of registered voters. Republicans hold a four-point advantage when voters are asked which party they trust more to handle the economy, even as Democrats maintain a similar advantage on which party cares more about people like them.
Immigration was identified as a leading concern by 28 percent of respondents, while 20 percent cited the war with Iran.
Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict remains a major Republican vulnerability. Only 29 percent approve of his handling of the situation, while 69 percent disapprove.
The emerging picture is complicated for both parties. Republicans have narrowed the electoral gap and possess a commanding financial advantage, but their voters remain less motivated. Democrats have the enthusiasm necessary to win the House, but their lead is historically modest, their national committee is buried in debt, and their candidates are drifting further toward the socialist left.
Democrats may still be favored to make gains in November. But they are entering the final months of the campaign with far less room for error—and far less money to correct one.
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