By Facts are stubborn things. New IRS data on interstate migration is sharpening a long-running debate about economic policy—and offering a measurable answer. According to figures tracking adjusted gross income (AGI) flows between states from 2022 to 2023, Americans are not just relocating; they are moving their income in ways that consistently favor low-tax, business-friendly states over their higher-tax counterparts.
The numbers are difficult to ignore. States that voted for Donald Trump gained a net $37.2 billion in income from domestic migration, while states that supported Kamala Harris lost approximately $40.8 billion. The pattern is not anecdotal—it is national in scope and grounded in IRS tax return data, one of the most reliable indicators of economic behavior.
IRS net migration data is out of 2023:
🔴 Red states gained $37.2 billion in income and 492k filers.
🔵 Blue states lost ~$40.8B and 520k filers.CA −$11.9B, NY −$9.9B, IL −$6.0B, MA −$4.2B, NJ −$2.8B. pic.twitter.com/3qrJcbjQKU
— Charlie Smirkley (@charliesmirkley) March 21, 2026
At the state level, the divide becomes even clearer. Florida led the nation with a net inflow of $20.6 billion in AGI, followed by Texas at $5.3 billion, along with strong gains in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee. These are states that have, over the past decade, emphasized lower tax burdens, lighter regulatory frameworks, and policies designed to attract capital and labor.
The losses are equally concentrated. California saw a net outflow of $12.9 billion in income, followed by New York at $10.6 billion and Illinois at $6.1 billion. Other traditionally high-tax states—including Massachusetts and New Jersey—also posted significant losses.
This is not merely a demographic shift; it is a reallocation of economic productivity. High-income earners, entrepreneurs, and mobile professionals are disproportionately represented among movers, meaning the migration carries outsized fiscal consequences for both sending and receiving states. Tax bases shrink in one jurisdiction and expand in another. Over time, those shifts compound.
Supporters of progressive policy frameworks often point to non-policy factors—weather, housing costs, or remote work flexibility—to explain the trend. Those variables matter, but they are not independent of policy. Housing costs, for example, are shaped by land-use restrictions and regulatory barriers. Remote work did not create mobility so much as it exposed the underlying incentives already embedded in state tax and regulatory systems.
What emerges from the IRS data is a pattern of revealed preference. Americans are making decisions based not on rhetoric, but on the practical consequences of governance. States that minimize tax burdens and regulatory friction are attracting both people and capital. States that expand them are seeing both leave.
In that sense, the migration data functions as a kind of ongoing national referendum—one conducted not at the ballot box, but through individual economic choice. It reflects millions of decentralized decisions about where opportunity is most attainable and where prosperity is most sustainable.
There are exceptions. A handful of states that lean Democratic, including New Hampshire and Colorado, recorded modest gains. But these cases tend to align with more moderate fiscal environments, reinforcing rather than undermining the broader trend.
The implications are long-term. As income migrates, so too does political influence, tax revenue, and economic dynamism. States gaining residents and AGI will have greater capacity to invest, grow, and shape national policy. Those losing both will face increasing pressure to reassess the policy frameworks driving the exodus.
The conclusion, while politically contested, is empirically grounded: policy choices matter, and they produce observable outcomes. When individuals are free to move, they tend to gravitate toward systems that allow them to keep more of what they earn and navigate fewer barriers to building wealth.
It’s clear: conservatism works.
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