By With a majority measured in single digits and discipline measured vote by vote, even a rumor can rattle the House Republicans.
Speaker Mike Johnson is begging retiring Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida to complete his current term, as speculation swirls that the veteran Republican may step aside earlier than planned.
Dunn, 72, a urologist and entrepreneur from Panama City, announced in mid-January that he would not seek reelection in 2026, saying he wanted to spend more time with family after five terms representing Florida’s 2nd Congressional District. The north Florida seat is a reliably conservative stronghold, rated Republican-leaning by roughly eight points, where Dunn has repeatedly won by comfortable margins.
But in a House where margins are thin and attendance is everything, timing matters.
An early resignation would further narrow the GOP’s razor-thin majority, potentially reducing it to 217–214 — one of the tightest governing margins in modern congressional history. Such a shift would leave Johnson with virtually no cushion on party-line votes, complicating efforts to move legislation through a sharply divided chamber. Republicans expect to reclaim a seat in a March special election, but another vacancy would immediately offset those gains.
Johnson addressed the issue directly on Wednesday.
“He is a beloved member of Congress and a great man. And, you know, he’s informed us he’s not going to run for re-election. And what he does from here forward, I’m not sure,” Johnson told reporters.
“You need to ask him about it. But I’ve encouraged him to stay and be part of this, and I think he wants to do that. And so you have to ask him all the circumstances.”
Behind the scenes, senior House Republicans reportedly believe Dunn could step down in the coming months—possibly by July—according to individuals familiar with internal discussions who talked to USA TODAY. Talk of an early exit intensified this week, with some suggesting an announcement could come soon, triggering a special election in the deeply red district.
Under Florida law, Gov. Ron DeSantis would be required to call a primary and special election to fill any vacancy. That contest could align with scheduled elections in August and November, depending on timing.
Dunn himself has offered little clarity. Asked Wednesday whether he would serve out the remainder of his term, he replied simply: “No comment.”
Majority Math: GOP Rep Neal DUNN said "no comment" to repeated questions from @sarahnferris & others on whether he planned to serve the remainder of his term…
If he resigns before the #GA14 special is over, the House will be at 217R to 214D
— Ally Mutnick (@allymutnick) February 11, 2026
Some colleagues have speculated privately about health concerns, noting that Dunn has occasionally worn a mask on the House floor in recent weeks. When asked about that observation, Dunn responded with a quip: “Don’t I look good?”
His office has attempted to tamp down the rumors. A spokesperson previously stated that Dunn intends to complete his term and depart in January 2027 as originally planned.
A loyal supporter of former President Donald Trump, Dunn has backed major Republican priorities, including tax and spending reforms and efforts to defund certain federal programs. He is one of a record 30 Republicans choosing not to seek reelection in the 2026 cycle — a figure that has heightened anxiety within GOP ranks about maintaining control of the chamber.
The race to succeed him is already underway. Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power is among those who have entered the contest, positioning himself in what is expected to be a strongly Republican primary electorate.
The episode illustrates the current fragility of the GOP House majority. With broader redistricting battles unfolding in states such as California and Florida—and with Indiana Republicans refusing to enter the fight—every seat carries outsized weight.
In a chamber this closely divided, even uncertainty can function as leverage, from both Republican and Democratic members. Until Dunn resolves the question of his timeline, the arithmetic of power remains unsettled, and Democrats are only a few seats away from taking the gavel and launching another impeachment.
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